By Marcus Sotiriou, Analyst at the publicly listed digital asset broker GlobalBlock (TSXV:BLOK).
The crypto market has dropped below $1 trillion again this week, as Bitcoin neared towards the local bottom of $17,600. On chain analytics have also demonstrated a bearish sentiment among market participants.
An example of this is the Bitcoin adjusted SOPR chart, provided by Glassnode, which shows that investors are cashing out during bear market rallies. This indicator suggests that investors are selling to “get their money back” at their cost basis, as there is a huge resistance at 1, which is the breakeven threshold. I think the mainstream narrative of a recession and high inflation has caused fear among market participants.
The seasonality of Bitcoin’s monthly price change is congruent with September being a negative month, shown by the chart above, as 7 of the past 9 Septembers have been red.
However, Bitcoin is already down by over 5% this month and 7 of the past Octobers have been green. Therefore, if Bitcoin’s seasonality over the past 9 years is anything to go by, then this fear could be resulting in a great buying opportunity.